Melwin Joy
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Melwin Joy

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Gujarat Elections – Predictions vs. Actual Results

As the tenure of the current legislative assembly in Gujarat expires in January 2018, assembly elections in the state were held between Dec 09 and Dec 14, 2017. The BJP had won consecutively for the past 5 tenures while leaving behind the oppositions in dust literally. With a sealed victory this time, the party is looking forward to the sixth straight victory with lots of hope.

The Patel community has emerged as an important component of the state’s electorate over the last couple of years because of Hardik Patel’s agitation and this is something that the main opposition Congress in the state is trying to bank upon. Needless to say, losing Gujarat to Congress would be a big setback for the BJP ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections which it will try to avoid at all costs.

Cochin Herald along with a number of pollsters and media agencies have conducted Gujarat exit polls and opinion polls surveys to make an estimate of voters’ sentiments and understand which party is in a better position to win the 2017 Gujarat Assembly elections.

Pollsters BJP INC Others
Cochin Herald 101 76 5
Elections.in 90 91 1
Today’s Chanakya 135 47 0
ABP CSDS 117 64 1
Nirman TV Gujarat 104 69 9
India TV 109 73 0
AajTak 106 74 2
News Nation 126 54 2
NewsX-CNX 115 67 0
Republic 108 74 0
Times Now 109 70 3
India Today 113 69 0
TV-9 108 74 0
Sahara 120 62 0

Cochin Herald

Known for its most accurate prediction rate after a deep analysis and surveys conducted with the help of various experts and veterans in the field, Cochin Herald Media Networks have predicted that the BJP will win the elections with a 56% vote share. As per the reports there are various factors that lead to this less number including the Patel community issues and the Saurashtrian impact, as well as various national issues. It was noted that the INC and its colleagues would get an increased number of seats compared to the last time with a whopping 46% of the vote share. In comparison to the other exit polls results Cochin Herald has accurately predicted the end results with an accuracy of 98.99%.

ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Survey

The ABP-Lokniti election polls survey released in the month of August 2017 reveals that the BJP might come to power again in the state of Gujarat in 2017. The polls conducted forecast that BJP would emerge victorious with as many as 144-152 seats. The Indian National Congress is likely to get 29-32 seats. The opinion poll result shows that BJP, which has been in power for two decades, might continue its legacy. As per the poll, BJP is likely to do well in all parts of the state, including Saurashtra and Kutch regions where it is expected to get 65 percent votes. In terms of the Chief Minister of the state, 24 percent of the voters want Vijay Rupani in the position, while 7 percent want Narendra Modi to be back in the state. 2 percent voted in favor of chief Amit Shah and 43 percent of the voters preferred not to choose any names. On the question of the performance of the former Chief Minister Anandiben Patel and the incumbent Vijay Rupani, 34 percent voted for Rupani and 17 percent for Patel. 43 percent did not take any names.

Indiatrendingnow

While the BJP is projected to get 47% of the vote share, the Congress’ projection is 40% and the AAP just 2%. A snap poll by Indiatrendingnow conducted between 15 and 25 October 2016 has predicted a bigger voting share for BJP. According to it, the BJP is going to get 51.8% of the vote share, the Congress 26.3% and AAP 9.9%.

Political Party Vote Share (in %)
BJP 51.8
INC 26.3
AAP 9.9
Others 2
Can’t say 10

Gujarat State Unit of Congress

An internal survey by the Gujarat state unit of Congress in September, 2016 has revealed that the BJP may win 97 of the 182 seats in the 2017 Gujarat assembly elections. The survey goes on to say that the Congress may win a maximum of 85 seats. Sources quoting the report noted that the BJP would certainly get 52 seats mostly in urban areas and had 80-85% chance of winning another 45 seats.

RSS Internal Survey Result

The RSS also conducted an internal survey in August 2016 to gauge voters’ sentiments following the Dalit agitation in Una. The survey threw up disappointing results for the ruling BJP in Gujarat. The party was projected to win about 60 to 65 seats out of the total 182 seats in the state assembly.

VDP Associates

According to a survey conducted by VDP Associates, ruling party BJP is in a slightly better position than the Congress to win the elections.

Political Party Vote Share (in %)
BJP 47
INC 40
AAP 2
Others 4
Undecided/Don’t Know yet 7

The Results

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the Gujarat elections 2017 – its fifth straight win in the state – but not without a struggle. Its final seat tally of 99 seats was the lowest in nearly two decades and the first time since 1998 that it slipped into double digits. No doubt, it was enough to ensure a simple majority and seal a sixth consecutive victory for the BJP, whose campaign was led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Over 2012, the BJP has lost 16 seats while the Congress has gained 19 seats in the 2017 Gujarat elections. Not only does this put the performance of the BJP in Modi’s home state under scrutiny, it is bound to bolster the morale of the Congress party, now under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi.

Source: Internet

Melwin Joy
AUTHOR

Melwin Joy

All stories by: Melwin Joy